Long Range Weather Forecasts - Part 2

The accident near Trowbridge can be read about in this BBC report, and in this one from the Daily Mail. It was a collision between a lorry and a car, no mention of winds in the BBC report, although there is in the Mail.

According to the nearby weather station at RAF Fairford, the average wind speed on that day was 15 mph, with a max wind speed of 24 mph and a max gust speed of 33 mph. According to the Beaufort scale, a wind speed of 24 mph is only a fresh breeze, gale force winds don't start until 39 mph, and that is not gusts, but consistent wind. Storm force winds are above 55 mph. There was no way that the accident was due to a severe storm, although of course weather conditions could have contributed, as it was wet and dark at the time of the accident. Both newspaper reports are taking artistic licence.....

Long range weather forecasts in The Daily Express

This weekend, the Daily Express featured a front page article entitled "Worst winter for decades: Record-breaking snow predicted for November". It was the usual Express piece based on long range weather forecasts, with the worst bits emphasised for headlines. But how accurate is it? It is claiming low temperatures until February, but given how chaotic the weather system is, how can you possibly claim that with any accuracy?

According to the article, "It is also likely the southern half [of the UK] will experience a number of major snow events throughout November." That is quite a claim. It also said "Severe storms are thought to have caused the deaths of two people yesterday. A man was killed on the A350 near Trowbridge, Wiltshire, while a driver died when his Jeep spun off the A35 near Bournemouth." Severe storms is a bit of a stretch - there were some higher than usual winds, but nothing approach storm force here in the south-west.

So some of it is certainly spin, but how much? Over the coming months, we'll compare the actual weather to the long range forecasts from the specialist forecasters used in the article (the Express likes using them rather than the Met Office). Then we'll see.