Long range weather forecasts in The Daily Express - Review 2

The original article said the following:-

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said it was likely to be the worst winter for more than 100 years. He said: 'A horror winter scenario is likely to bring another big freeze with copious snow for many parts. There is also a high risk that we will experience a scenario similar to December 2010 or much worse at times, especially in January.'

He went on: 'The cold theme from the latter part of October is likely to continue into November - and for the vast majority of the month. November could turn out to be a record-breaking month. There is the potential for some significant falls of snow. The northern half is likely to experience the worst conditions. It is also likely the southern half will experience a number of major snow events throughout November.'

Average November rainfall between 2008 and 2012 is 125.50mm, with a low in 2011 of 60.5mm, and a high of 221mm in 2009. Last year was 188.5mm, and this year we had 90.5mm, so not actually that wet.

Looking at temperatures, as recorded at the Filton Weather Station, the average maximum temperature in November between 2005 and 2012 was 10.87 C - this year it was 10.01 C. The average minimum temperature between 2005 and 2012 was 5.30 C - this year it was 4.12 C. Looking at the extremes of temperatures, the highest individual maximum temperature averaged for each year between 2005-2012 was 15.70 C, and the lowest minimum averaged was -0.79 C. In 2013, the maximum was 14.30 C, and the minimum -1.40 C. So the temperatures are a touch lower, but nothing huge - it is the start of winter after all.

Also, there were no snow events in Bradley Stoke during November. At least for this month, the long range forecast looks badly off.

Long range weather forecasts in The Daily Express - Review 1

So, back on the 12th October, the Daily Express said that "It is also likely the southern half [of the UK] will experience a number of major snow events throughout November." The weather has finally got colder, with northern winds blowing in wintery weather. Overnight there have been snow falls on the higher ground in Wales, as well as in north-east Scotland and the northern isles. Still nary a flake in the south of England. So 11 days to go to experience a number of major snow events in the south.

A question for Cinderella

If a dream is a wish the heart makes,
Then please explain this to me,
How my heart wants to be chased by aliens,
Mutant carrots, ghosts, or banshees?
Does it really desire to be married,
To a woman who's face I can't see?
And does it really desire to be bloodied,
By knives sticking out into me?
Dreams aren't wishes the heart makes,
They're ways for your subsconscious to see,
A way it can explore different concepts,
Hidden under allegory.

Long Range Weather Forecasts - Part 2

The accident near Trowbridge can be read about in this BBC report, and in this one from the Daily Mail. It was a collision between a lorry and a car, no mention of winds in the BBC report, although there is in the Mail.

According to the nearby weather station at RAF Fairford, the average wind speed on that day was 15 mph, with a max wind speed of 24 mph and a max gust speed of 33 mph. According to the Beaufort scale, a wind speed of 24 mph is only a fresh breeze, gale force winds don't start until 39 mph, and that is not gusts, but consistent wind. Storm force winds are above 55 mph. There was no way that the accident was due to a severe storm, although of course weather conditions could have contributed, as it was wet and dark at the time of the accident. Both newspaper reports are taking artistic licence.....

Long range weather forecasts in The Daily Express

This weekend, the Daily Express featured a front page article entitled "Worst winter for decades: Record-breaking snow predicted for November". It was the usual Express piece based on long range weather forecasts, with the worst bits emphasised for headlines. But how accurate is it? It is claiming low temperatures until February, but given how chaotic the weather system is, how can you possibly claim that with any accuracy?

According to the article, "It is also likely the southern half [of the UK] will experience a number of major snow events throughout November." That is quite a claim. It also said "Severe storms are thought to have caused the deaths of two people yesterday. A man was killed on the A350 near Trowbridge, Wiltshire, while a driver died when his Jeep spun off the A35 near Bournemouth." Severe storms is a bit of a stretch - there were some higher than usual winds, but nothing approach storm force here in the south-west.

So some of it is certainly spin, but how much? Over the coming months, we'll compare the actual weather to the long range forecasts from the specialist forecasters used in the article (the Express likes using them rather than the Met Office). Then we'll see.

Barbs

Verbal barbs don't really hurt,
When they're going in,
It's when you try to pull them out,
That they rip up at the skin.
Creating little mental scars,
Their points left deep within,
A gradual build up of poison,
Corroding, soul searing.

Autumn mushrooms

Autumn has started, and the mushrooms and fungi are appearing in Savages Wood in the Three Brooks Nature Reserve.

On an oak leaf

Spotted on an oak tree by the community orchard in the Three Brooks Reserve - shed moth larvae skins on spangle galls.

Insect eggs

These insect eggs were recently spotted on a dead willow branch.

Another Tesco multibuy wonder

Another Tesco multibuy wonder seen yesterday. Apologies for image quality - it was behind glass.

Greylag goose

Greylag goose (Anser anser).

Wood ants

This wood ant was scurrying around carrying a dead red ant.

Leaf borer

Leaf borers have set up in willow leaves, which have then been eaten by sawfly larvae. They have eaten around the borers, leaving them in place.

Common darter

Seen in the garden.

UK Government surveillance legislation

The Eyes Have It.......

Bug with parasite

This bug was also seen walking around, carrying a small parasite.

Aphids

These aphids were spotted in a willow tree - they seem to turn brown over time. Some of them in this photo also appear to be parasitised.

Ladybirds

There have been hardly any ladybirds in the garden all year, then last week they suddenly all appeared. The following were all seen on the same set of plants:

7 Spot Ladybird

Harlequin ladybirds

Harlequin ladybirds

Harlequin ladybirds

14 Spot ladybirds

Unidentified insects

Around 3mm long, seen in the garden. Perhaps an aphid nymph.

Around 4-5mm long, again in the garden.

Bumblebees

Bumblebee on a foxglove.

Bumblebee on a lavatera.

Little black fly

This 6mm black fly was seen in the garden - don't know what kind it is though.

Wildlife of Bradley Stoke - Tree bumblebee

Bombus hypnorum, the Tree bumblebee, comes in two forms - the dark form, seen above, and the more usual red backed form, seen below. It was first observed in the UK in 2001, being common in continental Europe, and now appears to be common here too.

Wildlife of Bradley Stoke - Phyllobius pomaceus

Spotted in a white willow - Phyllobius pomaceus, a type of weavil.

Wildlife of Bradley Stoke - Dabchick

This Dabchick, who was just caught a fish to give to one of her two chicks, was observed on the Three Brooks lake this weekend.

Sawfly larvae

Sawfly larvae spotted on a willow leaf.

Caterpillar eggs

These were spotted on a willow leaf.

Growth on white willow

This growth was found on a white willow tree - any idea what it is?

Close up of a tiny fly

This little critter, with a body about 1mm long, dropped dead on a windowsill.

This is a picture of the wing, at about 400x magnification. You can see the tiny hairs on the edge of the wing and all over it.

Here is the head and a leg - you can see the compound nature of the eye, plus hairs on the leg. Again at about 400x magnification.

First swallow of summer seen

First swallow of the summer seen on a telephone wire in Walton, Somerset (near Street) yesterday.

Monks Pool Nature Reserve

A picture from Monks Pool Nature Reserve last month.

More bugs

More bugs which have infected plants - the one on the left is a flying aphid, the one on the right is 0.8mm long and unknown, both on the underside of a sweet pepper plant.

Tesco again - missing apostrophe

Spotted in Tesco At Home this weekend - shows why the apostrophe is important....

The latest great multibuy offer from Tesco

Disgruntled was just astounded by the savings to be made in this multibuy offer from Tesco yesterday.....

Acyrthosiphon

This is an acyrthosiphon aphid, sitting on the underneath of a pepper plant leaf. It's about 1mm long, and has been busy making a mess of and helping to kill leaves from the plant. The white spots it produces can be seen in the microscope image below.

Shown here is a leaf which has dropped from the plant and has dried out a bit, hence the black spots visible which are enlarged stomata. The white goo is produced by the aphids.

Amritsar

The BBC in an article about the Amritsar massacre and David Cameron visting the memorial to it managed to get the spelling wrong....

Three Brooks Nature Reserve under snow

Disgruntled went for a walk in the nature reserve this weekend, following what used to be a path eight years ago, from the bridge by the three brooks lake, up the right hand side of the stream by the tump. Then, the trees were mere saplings, and there was a clear path through to a couple of old willow trees which have copious holes made by woodpeckers. Now, the trees are somewhat bigger, and the path soon disappears. You now make your own way underneath the canopy.

Light levels are low, and further blocked by the trees, but the enclosed frozen space has a feel of its own, and is shared by rustling birds, and tunnels of view created by the artificially aligned trees.

As you get to the old willows, the trees thin out a bit and you are hit with a sudden unexpected light. You are completely hidden from the rest of the reserve, but can hear the shouts of others playing all around, cut-off from everything but eavesdropping on the rest of the world with beautiful snow-covered trees all around. The willows are still there, as always, a seemingly unchanging constant in a constantly changing reserve, a reminder of what the newly planted trees strive to be.

Once back on the path towards Savages Wood, you can divert onto a path which runs parallel to it, and closer to the school fence. The path is much more light at this time of year, with the lack of overhead foliage, and the warmth from underground has started to melt the snow already.

And the wildlife survives, with small birds flitting around, squirrels in the trees, given away by a sudden shower of snow as they shimmy up a branch to the warmth of their winter dreys. But although it is cold, it isn't as cold as two years ago - the lake isn't freezing over. But the cold does change the visitors - look closely and you can see two pairs of teal on the lake, winter refugees making use of what's on offer.

An icicle in study

Was just intrigued here how the air bubbles have been trapped in the ice as the icicle formed.