Long range weather forecasts in The Daily Express - Review 3

So, December - the average maximum temperature for December was 10.02 C, compared to an average of 7.76 C between 2005-2013 (and incidentally warmer than the average maximum of 10.01 C for November!). The average minimum was 4.54 C, compared to an average of 2.91 C between 2005-2013. The highest maximum was 13.30 C (compared to an average extreme of 12.36 C), and the lowest minimum was 1.20 C (compared to an average extreme of -2.94 C). So the month was much warmer than average. So no big freeze at all, although the succession of storms means it's been a bit windier than normal.

Long range weather forecasts in The Daily Express - Review 2

The original article said the following:-

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said it was likely to be the worst winter for more than 100 years. He said: 'A horror winter scenario is likely to bring another big freeze with copious snow for many parts. There is also a high risk that we will experience a scenario similar to December 2010 or much worse at times, especially in January.'

He went on: 'The cold theme from the latter part of October is likely to continue into November - and for the vast majority of the month. November could turn out to be a record-breaking month. There is the potential for some significant falls of snow. The northern half is likely to experience the worst conditions. It is also likely the southern half will experience a number of major snow events throughout November.'

Average November rainfall between 2008 and 2012 is 125.50mm, with a low in 2011 of 60.5mm, and a high of 221mm in 2009. Last year was 188.5mm, and this year we had 90.5mm, so not actually that wet.

Looking at temperatures, as recorded at the Filton Weather Station, the average maximum temperature in November between 2005 and 2012 was 10.87 C - this year it was 10.01 C. The average minimum temperature between 2005 and 2012 was 5.30 C - this year it was 4.12 C. Looking at the extremes of temperatures, the highest individual maximum temperature averaged for each year between 2005-2012 was 15.70 C, and the lowest minimum averaged was -0.79 C. In 2013, the maximum was 14.30 C, and the minimum -1.40 C. So the temperatures are a touch lower, but nothing huge - it is the start of winter after all.

Also, there were no snow events in Bradley Stoke during November. At least for this month, the long range forecast looks badly off.

Long range weather forecasts in The Daily Express - Review 1

So, back on the 12th October, the Daily Express said that "It is also likely the southern half [of the UK] will experience a number of major snow events throughout November." The weather has finally got colder, with northern winds blowing in wintery weather. Overnight there have been snow falls on the higher ground in Wales, as well as in north-east Scotland and the northern isles. Still nary a flake in the south of England. So 11 days to go to experience a number of major snow events in the south.

Long Range Weather Forecasts - Part 2

The accident near Trowbridge can be read about in this BBC report, and in this one from the Daily Mail. It was a collision between a lorry and a car, no mention of winds in the BBC report, although there is in the Mail.

According to the nearby weather station at RAF Fairford, the average wind speed on that day was 15 mph, with a max wind speed of 24 mph and a max gust speed of 33 mph. According to the Beaufort scale, a wind speed of 24 mph is only a fresh breeze, gale force winds don't start until 39 mph, and that is not gusts, but consistent wind. Storm force winds are above 55 mph. There was no way that the accident was due to a severe storm, although of course weather conditions could have contributed, as it was wet and dark at the time of the accident. Both newspaper reports are taking artistic licence.....

Long range weather forecasts in The Daily Express

This weekend, the Daily Express featured a front page article entitled "Worst winter for decades: Record-breaking snow predicted for November". It was the usual Express piece based on long range weather forecasts, with the worst bits emphasised for headlines. But how accurate is it? It is claiming low temperatures until February, but given how chaotic the weather system is, how can you possibly claim that with any accuracy?

According to the article, "It is also likely the southern half [of the UK] will experience a number of major snow events throughout November." That is quite a claim. It also said "Severe storms are thought to have caused the deaths of two people yesterday. A man was killed on the A350 near Trowbridge, Wiltshire, while a driver died when his Jeep spun off the A35 near Bournemouth." Severe storms is a bit of a stretch - there were some higher than usual winds, but nothing approach storm force here in the south-west.

So some of it is certainly spin, but how much? Over the coming months, we'll compare the actual weather to the long range forecasts from the specialist forecasters used in the article (the Express likes using them rather than the Met Office). Then we'll see.