Long range weather forecasts - final review

For January, the average maximum temperature was 9.19C, compared to an average of 7.67 C between 2005 and 2013. For February it was 9.59 C, compared to an average of 8.04 C between 2005 and 2013. So the long range temperature forecast was very inaccurate, although it was somewhat stormy. This was probably a result of the jet stream location mentioned in the original article.

Flooding on the Somerset Levels

Taken from Ashcott, west of Street, looking south-westish towards Langport.

Bald robin

Seen in the Three Brooks Nature Reserve today:

Seen near the Bradley Stoke Way bridge over the reserve - a robin completely missing all feathers on its head.

Dunnock (Prunella modularis), seen in the same area.

Long range weather forecasts in The Daily Express - Review 3

So, December - the average maximum temperature for December was 10.02 C, compared to an average of 7.76 C between 2005-2013 (and incidentally warmer than the average maximum of 10.01 C for November!). The average minimum was 4.54 C, compared to an average of 2.91 C between 2005-2013. The highest maximum was 13.30 C (compared to an average extreme of 12.36 C), and the lowest minimum was 1.20 C (compared to an average extreme of -2.94 C). So the month was much warmer than average. So no big freeze at all, although the succession of storms means it's been a bit windier than normal.

2013 Rainfall

Rainfall during 2013.

Average of the rainfall over the last six years. For the year, the total was 901.5 mm, which compares to 1383.5 mm for 2012.

Long range weather forecasts in The Daily Express - Review 2

The original article said the following:-

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said it was likely to be the worst winter for more than 100 years. He said: 'A horror winter scenario is likely to bring another big freeze with copious snow for many parts. There is also a high risk that we will experience a scenario similar to December 2010 or much worse at times, especially in January.'

He went on: 'The cold theme from the latter part of October is likely to continue into November - and for the vast majority of the month. November could turn out to be a record-breaking month. There is the potential for some significant falls of snow. The northern half is likely to experience the worst conditions. It is also likely the southern half will experience a number of major snow events throughout November.'

Average November rainfall between 2008 and 2012 is 125.50mm, with a low in 2011 of 60.5mm, and a high of 221mm in 2009. Last year was 188.5mm, and this year we had 90.5mm, so not actually that wet.

Looking at temperatures, as recorded at the Filton Weather Station, the average maximum temperature in November between 2005 and 2012 was 10.87 C - this year it was 10.01 C. The average minimum temperature between 2005 and 2012 was 5.30 C - this year it was 4.12 C. Looking at the extremes of temperatures, the highest individual maximum temperature averaged for each year between 2005-2012 was 15.70 C, and the lowest minimum averaged was -0.79 C. In 2013, the maximum was 14.30 C, and the minimum -1.40 C. So the temperatures are a touch lower, but nothing huge - it is the start of winter after all.

Also, there were no snow events in Bradley Stoke during November. At least for this month, the long range forecast looks badly off.

Long range weather forecasts in The Daily Express - Review 1

So, back on the 12th October, the Daily Express said that "It is also likely the southern half [of the UK] will experience a number of major snow events throughout November." The weather has finally got colder, with northern winds blowing in wintery weather. Overnight there have been snow falls on the higher ground in Wales, as well as in north-east Scotland and the northern isles. Still nary a flake in the south of England. So 11 days to go to experience a number of major snow events in the south.