Long range weather forecasts in The Daily Express

This weekend, the Daily Express featured a front page article entitled "Worst winter for decades: Record-breaking snow predicted for November". It was the usual Express piece based on long range weather forecasts, with the worst bits emphasised for headlines. But how accurate is it? It is claiming low temperatures until February, but given how chaotic the weather system is, how can you possibly claim that with any accuracy?

According to the article, "It is also likely the southern half [of the UK] will experience a number of major snow events throughout November." That is quite a claim. It also said "Severe storms are thought to have caused the deaths of two people yesterday. A man was killed on the A350 near Trowbridge, Wiltshire, while a driver died when his Jeep spun off the A35 near Bournemouth." Severe storms is a bit of a stretch - there were some higher than usual winds, but nothing approach storm force here in the south-west.

So some of it is certainly spin, but how much? Over the coming months, we'll compare the actual weather to the long range forecasts from the specialist forecasters used in the article (the Express likes using them rather than the Met Office). Then we'll see.